FM newsroom – CRE, trends, economy. After years of rapid growth, the global commercial real estate (CRE) sector is entering a period of recalibration.
Deloitte’s 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook survey of more than 850 executives across 13 countries shows that optimism has dipped slightly compared to last year: 83% expect revenue growth, down from 88%. Even so, most respondents believe market fundamentals remain solid across asset classes and regions.
Recovery Slows, But Confidence Holds
The anticipated rebound in 2025 was held back by macroeconomic headwinds—high interest rates, tighter capital access, and persistent policy uncertainty. Yet a modest rise in global investment volumes during early 2025 suggests the market may already have passed its lowest point.
“The global commercial real estate market shows a dual picture: despite significant macroeconomic turbulence, market participants remain optimistic about the coming period, while many companies have become more cautious over the past year. Those organisations that recognise and properly manage regional differences, and can effectively identify risks specific to asset types and individual properties, will be able to expand through agile operations,” Gábor Kohári, MRICS, Real Estate Advisory Expert at Deloitte Hungary, told economx.hu.
Investment Priorities and Capital Constraints
Nearly three-quarters of investors plan to increase property allocations within the next 18 months, mainly to hedge inflation, diversify portfolios, and enhance asset stability.
The United States remains the top investment target, followed by India, Germany, the UK, and Singapore.
The lending landscape, however, remains two-speed: existing high-leverage loans are strained by refinancing needs, while new loans are appearing under more favourable terms. Although the U.S. Federal Reserve began cutting rates in late 2025, many respondents still fear borrowing costs could stay higher for longer. In Europe, lending is recovering steadily—80% of surveyed lenders plan to expand loan origination in 2025–26.
Partnerships, Scale, and Technology
Real estate asset management is becoming increasingly scale-driven. Larger portfolios and broader product ranges now define competitiveness. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures are gaining momentum, helping firms access new capital and share risk in a still-costly financing environment.
At the same time, the industry’s embrace of artificial intelligence (AI) is gathering pace. While only 19% of firms are in early implementation, and 27% face challenges, interest is surging. Companies are focusing on practical use cases such as tenant management, lease preparation, and portfolio analysis. Smaller, sector-specific AI models are proving especially promising, provided data quality and internal expertise keep up.
Regional Outlook: EMEA and Central & Eastern Europe
Across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), sentiment is cautiously optimistic: about 70% of respondents expect improvements in leasing and capital markets by 2026.
Still, European transaction volumes fell 15% year-on-year by mid-2025, hit by shifting bond yields and slower capital flows.
In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)—including Poland, Czechia, and Romania—the picture is more upbeat. These markets have lower exposure to short-term debt, making them less vulnerable to refinancing risks seen in Western Europe.
Foreign capital is returning, drawn by higher yields and strong fundamentals in logistics, residential, and data-centre developments. Nearshoring and supply-chain shifts continue to fuel industrial and logistics growth, while prime office assets in major capitals are stabilising thanks to limited new supply.
Alternative lenders, such as private credit funds and insurers, are filling financing gaps left by cautious banks. Meanwhile, EU recovery and green transition funds are increasingly supporting sustainable housing and infrastructure across the region.
Outlook: Opportunities for the Agile
The “golden era” of cheap capital is over, but strategic agility is emerging as the new competitive advantage. Investors who rebalance portfolios toward resilient sectors—such as logistics, housing, and data infrastructure—and leverage partnerships and technology can still capture growth.
In Deloitte’s words, 2026 will reward prepared realists: those who act early, move selectively, and build strength in regions where opportunity still outpaces uncertainty.